Folks,

I have to keep up with Gerry and get a few more posts out here. It is indeed hard, with the depth of her knowledge about gardening that she is sharing with us, to keep up and find a new topic. So, I decided to start writing about health and public health which is another area that I hang out in these days. Health can indeed be a controversial topic but information is worth sharing to help you make decisions with a little more data from at least one corner of the thinking. There is such amazing experience and knowledge in this neighborhood and I encourage others to offer views to teach all of us. For example, I have had wonderful discussions on energy resources and generation that have expanded my thinking considerably.

 

Todays topic is to give you and idea what CDC is saying they predict the next flu critters are going to be and their vaccine recommendations.

 

OK, I respectfully admit that not all believe that vaccinations are a good thing, but as a scientist I see where populations both here in the US and across the world have been healthier way more than not when vaccinations are used. Even to the point where horrible diseases have been eliminated like smallpox across the world. Im always up for a discussion to hear other views about this so please add a comment to this blog on other views.

 

The execution of vaccines is not 100% perfect in all people and all ages. There is too much variance in how we all work and I cant deny that the quest for revenue drives some things to market faster than the comfort zone of the scientists and regulators who are trying to keep everyone safe.   I even know Dr Jeff Koplan who many of you know had a huge issue with rotavirus vaccine in the 90s. I watched as the causes were discovered and the vaccine adjusted to not hurt children ever again. You have not heard about this vaccine hurting children since because we learn and stay on the quest to keep our population healthy and safe from evolving threats using data and information we gather over time.

 

Lets get back to the topic at hand. CDC is focusing on three viruses that they predict will have prevalence this year, being Influenza A (H3N2), Influenza A (H1N1), and Influenza B (various strains). I give you these silly names of the viruses so you may recognize what the vaccines are supposed to protect against this year. The names like H3N2 verses H1N1 represent genetic differences in the flu virus and they vary in how sick we get from them. 

 

I am often asked how the CDC predicts what to put into a vaccine each year. I am a data person so what we do is track what has actually happened with what viruses over the years and surprisingly we see very consistent patterns. These patterns allow CDC to expect that most of the sickness will probably be due to certain viruses each year. Is it perfect? No, but its proven by our data to be more effective every year when we use this information to lower more people from getting sick when using better "cocktails" of the right vaccines. Its not hard to say that data can be faked and interpreted wrong, but all I can tell you is what I see in the health of the population as we get smarter about using data over time.

 

OK, so whats the reason for this blog. Many reasons really. One, why just believe the TV commercial that says get a flu shot when you can learn a little more about what is threatening you how you can be protected. Second, I know that Flu is very infectious so if I can give more information about what we know, from the scientist view, then it worth sharing to help you decide to protect yourselves and your neighbors. And.... last, You will be quite impressive in the next neighborhood picnic to share  that you know that this year H3N2 and H1N1 are the flu viruses we are getting vaccines for :)

 

There is a very detailed CDC report on the recommendations to clinicians this year on what to vaccinate for. You can read this report here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/66/rr/rr6602a1.htm?s_cid=rr6602a1_w There is a ton of hard to understand information in this report but it can be fun to wade through to pick up useful things.

 

One thing that I saw that you may want to challenge you doctor about is to not use the LAIV4 vaccine on you. Here is the quote that recommends against it: "In light of its low effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the United States during the 2013–14 and 2015–16 seasons, for the 2017–18 season, ACIP continues the recommendation that LAIV4 should not be used. Because LAIV4 is still a licensed vaccine that might be available and that some providers might elect to use, for informational purposes only, reference is made in this report to previous recommendations for its use." You may also find it useful to read the sections that talk about age groups and what is expected to be seen and how to vaccinate for this year.

 

Indeed, this may be a deep blog article, but its always fun to dive into a new area to learn and explore. Also, get vaccinated if you also think it can help our population stay healthier or if you are in a high risk group.

 

mark